Mets Minor League Mailbag: How close will top prospects be to majors when 2024 begins?

SNY contributor Joe DeMayo answers fan questions in this edition of the Mets Minor League Mailbag...

From @mister_ca: Will we see Paul Gervase in the major league bullpen before next September?

We can talk about a lot of the good things the Mets are doing but one thing they absolutely need to do a better job at is developing their own relievers in-house. 

That is a big task for the incoming head of player development that David Stearns will hire, and director of pitching development Eric Jagers, who I’d say had a good first year in the organization. There’s been a lot of positive pitching developments this year.

Building a bullpen through free agency is not the ideal way to do it at the big league level. Paying exceptions like Edwin Diaz is one thing, but you want to avoid having too many of the $7-to-$10 million middle relievers. Some of these will be minor league starters who do not project to have the arsenal to fill that role at the big league level, and you'll maybe get the top end of their stuff by transitioning them to shorter spurts. Some of them are minor league relievers who become big league relievers.

I think Gervase is one of those minor league relievers who has a chance to be a big league reliever. He transferred into LSU from Division III Pfeiffer University for the 2022 season, where he spent some time as a closer for the SEC powerhouse. The Mets drafted him in the 12^th round and he has hit the ground running in pro ball.

He stands 6-foot-10 inches, with a unique release point for his height and he has missed bats at a very high level in the minors this year. Across 57 innings with High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton, he posted a 2.05 ERA with 96 strikeouts (15.2 strikeouts per nine). However, that height sometimes leads to some inconsistencies in his delivery and command as he walked 42 batters (6.6 walks per nine). 

Stuff-wise, Gervase will touch 95 mph with an above average breaking ball. If he can make strides with his command, he is someone who could be a good player development story and make his big league debut in 2024.

From @wollapop: What is the organization expecting of Matt Allan? Is he essentially done?

We have not talked about Allan in some time, as I have said on The Mets Pod he is out of sight, out of mind for me. With that said, there is some hope he starts throwing in the next month or so coming off his UCL revision surgery that he had in February.

Allan, a former third-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft who the Mets paid first round money to sign away from a commitment to Florida has had a rocky beginning to his professional career. 

On a human level, you have got to feel for him. He quickly made his way to Brooklyn in his first couple of months as a pro to help them win the New York Penn League Championship. Then the tough breaks started as COVID canceled the 2020 season, he underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2021, nerve transposition surgery in January of 2022, and then the previously mentioned UCL revision surgery in February 2023.

The chance of a successful comeback from two Tommy John’s is not as strong as just one, but Allan does have youth on his side as he will not turn 23 until April. It is still a long-shot, but Allan has a chance to get back on a professional mound some time in early-to-mid 2024, and at this point must be looked at as a lottery ticket arm you hope can stay on the field.

From @Evanobrien5250: What affiliates do you see the top 10 prospects in the system starting next year at?

I like this one. 

I am often asked in these mailbags about ETAs to the major leagues for different prospects and I give my best estimate on that. 

One of the big keys in the Mets system is that most of their top prospects are in the upper minors, and this isn’t counting the graduated Francisco Álvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, who are showing enough to think they have roles on the 2024 big league team. 

Using my latest top 10 list from after the trade deadline, here is where I would project they begin 2024:

1. INF Luisangel Acuña – Triple-A Syracuse
2. SS/CF Jett Williams – Double-A Binghamton
3. OF Drew Gilbert – Triple-A Syracuse
4. C Kevin Parada – Double-A Binghamton
5. INF Ronny Mauricio – MLB
6. SS Colin Houck – Low-A St. Lucie
7. 1B/OF Ryan Clifford – High-A Brooklyn
8. OF Alex Ramirez – Double-A Binghamton
9. RHP Blade Tidwell – Double-A Binghamton
10. 2B Marco Vargas – Low-A St. Lucie

If we expanded this question to my top 15, there are four more prospects I would project to start at Triple-A Syracuse (Mike Vasil, Dom Hamel, Christian Scott and Justin Jarvis), while Brandon Sproat should be a quick mover as a college senior. 

The system certainly still needs work, but it is getting to a point where the Mets are going to have an influx of young talent on the major league team over the next 24 months.