At the halfway mark of the season, after another exasperating loss on Thursday night at Citi Field, the Mets are nine games under .500 and it's going to take a lot to get back into contention for a Wild Card spot.
As such, the possibility the Mets become sellers at the trade deadline is becoming more likely, a hard reality that owner Steve Cohen essentially admitted was a possibility during his press conference Wednesday.
With that in mind, Max Scherzer’s solid six-inning start in the 3-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers was the only real noteworthy development on a night when the offense again failed to hit much at all, especially in the clutch.
If the Mets weren’t playing so poorly in various phases of the game, Scherzer’s return to form lately might offer reason to believe in a second-half resurgence.
Instead, for the moment, it only raises the question: does it make him more or less likely to be traded?
Cohen officially opened that door Wednesday when he said he wouldn’t chase a turnaround at the trading deadline if the Mets don’t go on a run by then, while giving the impression that he’d be willing to sell instead.
Problem is, due to various long-term contracts, age, and poor performance, the Mets realistically don’t have much to trade of great value other than David Robertson.
That said, I’m leaving three big names out of that blanket evaluation.
First, forget Pete Alonso; it wouldn’t make sense to trade one of the best power hitters in baseball in his prime years, especially when Cohen likely wants to lock up the 28-year old first baseman as he heads for free agency after next season.
And then there are Scherzer and Justin Verlander. That’s where the real intrigue lies because of their age, their high-priced contracts, and their sparkling resumes as winners of multiple Cy Young Awards.
To get a sense of what their value might be on the trade market, I spoke to five people with some expertise on the matter -- two scouts, two assistant GMs, and one Mets person.
What I found most noteworthy was the consensus opinion that trading either Scherzer or Verlander wouldn’t bring back the type of prospect haul the Mets -- or at least their fans -- might expect, even if Cohen is willing to eat a major portion of one of their contracts.
“Nobody’s giving up top-flight young pitching for an aging starter who would come with questions about injury and performance,” was the way one team executive put it. “Even Steve Cohen’s not going to eat $40 to $50 million for a mediocre return. I don’t see either guy getting traded, even if they’re willing to waive their no-trade.”
Yes, any deal would have to start with Scherzer of Verlander agreeing to be moved. Both have one more year on their contracts at $43 million per, with a full no-trade clause, and one person with insight into the situation believes Scherzer would be the more likely of the two to waive the no-trade.
The person’s feeling is that Scherzer would be more inclined to jump at the right opportunity to try to win another championship, where Verlander has more reason to stay in New York, in part due to his wife’s modeling career, in part due to a strong relationship with Cohen and the belief the owner will do whatever it takes for the Mets to win in 2024.