Stay or Go: Should Yankees exercise club option on Luis Severino?

Luis Severino has been a Yankee since he was 17 years old and reached the major leagues for the first time at the tender age of 21. His career has been a mix of terrific pitching, two All-Star seasons (and the promise of many more) and time lost to injury.

Now, Severino, signed as an amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic, faces a career crossroads of sorts. He will become a free agent this winter if the Yankees do not exercise their club option, worth $15 million, on the right-hander. The team could choose to pay him a $2.75 million buyout instead.

That all comes on the heels of another year marred by time on the Injured list for Severino, who did not pitch from July 13 - Sept. 21 because of a strained lat. He missed 59 team games.

But when he pitched, Severino was, as usual, effective, which might make the question of whether he’s back a simple one to answer. He went 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts and allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 starts. He gave up two earned runs or fewer in 12 starts.

Now that the Yankees are beginning their winter business, should Sevy stay or go?

WHY IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO LET SEVERINO GO

Before the 2019 season, the Yankees and Severino hammered out a four-year contract extension worth $40 million. Severino had been great from 2017-18, finishing third and ninth in AL Cy Young voting. It looked like a terrific deal for both at the time – cost certainty for the Yankees on a bright young talent and life-changing money for Severino with a chance for another contract afterward in free agency, while presumably still in his prime. Severino was five days shy of his 25th birthday when it was announced.

But he suffered a shoulder injury in 2019 and only pitched in three games in the regular season and two in the postseason. He had Tommy John surgery in 2020 and missed the abbreviated pandemic season. Recovery impacted his 2021, too, and he made only four appearances in the regular season and one in the playoffs.

Let’s do the math: Since he signed the contract, he’s only pitched 140.2 innings, including the postseason, 113 of them this year. Over that span, he’s got a 3.01 ERA with 160 strikeouts, 44 walks and 103 hits allowed.

The pitching has been good; the health, not so much. What do the Yankees and their actuaries and analytics people make of that?

WHY IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP SEVERINO

Look at these (pitching) prices! Starting pitching is expensive and getting a potential ace-type for $15 million – actually, it’s just an additional $12.25 million, considering the Yanks already are guaranteed to give Severino $2.75 million per that buyout – is a steal.

Even with all he’s been through physically, Severino still throws his four-seam fastball in the mid-90s. He’s got a pitch mix that relies on that fastball, plus a changeup, cutter and slider.

Since 2017, he’s allowed 1.0 home runs per nine innings, below what the MLB average was for each season since then, a potentially-important stat in a homer-happy home ballpark. Yankee Stadium yielded the most long balls (207) in the AL this season. He limits walks, too – his 2.6 BB/9 this year was 0.5 walks lower than MLB average.

While Severino had a 4.91 ERA in two postseason starts, he showed what peak Severino can do in his final start of the regular season, when he threw seven no-hit innings against the Texas Rangers for his 50th career win. He said afterward he could’ve finished the no-no, even if he had been back in the majors for only a couple of weeks.

When Severino is healthy, he is a mega-talent. He’s one of only four Yankee pitchers to have more than one season with 200-plus strikeouts. The others are Gerrit Cole, David Cone and Ron Guidry, the kind of company that should make Yankee fans dream.

He’s been around awhile, so it’s easy to forget his age – he’ll turn 29 on Feb. 20. At one point, he had durability, too – he had multiple 30-start seasons on his resume in his age-24-seasons-or-younger, the first Yankee to make that claim since Steve Kline in 1971-72. He was younger then, of course, but maybe he’s not too old now for rediscovery.

VERDICT

This is a no-brainer. The Yanks should pick up the option and then enjoy having a 1-2-3 rotation attack of Cole, Nestor Cortes and Severino. Jameson Taillon is a free agent and they already traded away Jordan Montgomery, so they need rotation solutions. Severino’s level of potential won’t come along at this price point. There’s risk, but it’s worthwhile.