Why the 2023-24 Knicks will live and die by the 3

What element of basketball comes to mind when you think of the Tom Thibodeau Knicks? Is it a staunch, unrelenting defense, or team rebound crashing, or maybe the minutes load and work ethic it requires to play for them?

Years ago, it would have been impossible to imagine “3-point shooting” as an answer. Yet, in his four seasons at the helm of New York, Thibodeau pushed his team further behind the arc, a revelation for the normally ultra-traditional Thibs that’s been precisely the spark his offenses needed.

His first season, the Knicks ranked 22nd offensively, with 34.8 percent of their shot attempts coming from 3, the 24th-highest mark in the league. Entering Year 2, the deep ball became an emphasis, and New York took 42.9 percent of their field goal tries from 3, good for seventh in the NBA.

Unfortunately for the Knicks, they weren’t converting, with Julius Randle and RJ Barrett’s jumpers regressing and the lack of a preferred floor general.

Last year, they also struggled knocking down 3s but maintained the higher volume. This season, they appear to have finally struck the perfect balance, ranking 11th in percentage of field goals coming from 3 and seventh in 3-point accuracy, culminating in a near-top-10 offense.

What’s changed for the Knicks?

It starts at the top with Jalen Brunson. The Knicks’ engine at the point came into this season a much stronger and willing 3-point shooter, currently making 47.4% of his treys, sixth among qualified shooters.

That’s a nice leap from his 41.6% clip last year and career 39.6% average, but likely an unsustainable mark to maintain. If he stays above 40% taking the 3s he’s taking, though, his shooting will still be invaluable because of the different looks he’s added.

Brunson’s been much more aggressive with his pull-up shooting, punishing defenders for playing too far back on isolations and in drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. He’s become more comfortable taking 3s from a few steps behind the arc, even repeatedly going to deep top-of-key pull-ups in 1-on-1 situations, mostly against big men, adding a new dimension to his shooting.

He’s knocking down an incendiary 51.9% of his catch-and-shoot 3s, and his teammates have noticed. Randle is now looking for Brunson more actively when he gets attention down low, resulting in lots of good looks.

A quarter of Brunson’s field-goal attempts came from 3 in 2023, a number that’s bumped up to 37% this year. He’s made a dedicated effort to get more shots up from behind the arc, and it’s paying dividends thanks to his deadly touch.

Randle’s deep ball abandoned him to start the season, but he’s still committed to taking more of those over long 2s and is at a 31% clip his last 13 games. Barrett’s in a slump since returning from migraines, but is still shooting 38.9% on the season, a solid campaign from him.

Immanuel Quickley also came in with a more dynamic approach from three, taking tougher pull-ups off the pick-and-roll and other actions. He’s only shooting 36.8% this year, but he’s above 40% off the dribble and the spot ups will likely come around.

It’s not just returning players who are making an impact: newcomer Donte DiVincenzo has lived up to his shooter reputation, hitting a scathing 43.4% on 5.2 looks a night. His pure confidence from anywhere around the arc has been instrumental in the Knicks deep attack.

These individual developments are great and will entrench the Knicks further into their winning identity, however the dependence on 3-point shooting will leave them open to some bad slumps. Threes are the most variable shot in the game, and for every good night and hot five-game stretch, New York will face the opposite.

That’s reflected in the numbers, where the Knicks are 12-3 shooting above 35% from deep and 0-4 otherwise. They’re also 8-4 when shooting more than 35 treys and 4-3 when below.

Those figures don’t tell us much, but so long as the 3 ball remains a mainstay in the Knicks offense, they will need to learn to win the games when they aren’t falling, and try and generate the best looks they can from 3 otherwise.

New York has active and willing playmakers, but they aren’t considered among the NBA’s elite. The Knicks have their fair share of weak-side shooters slumping their shoulders back down the court after not getting the ball despite being wide open.

Trying to find those looks, along with wide open 3s off the offensive glass or in semi-transition, will help swing the numbers further in New York’s favor. When the shots aren’t falling, they need to force it less and try to get easy buckets at the free throw line or rim.

But at large, what they’ve done thus far this season is working. If the Knicks can shoot it decently while maintaining their volume and top-flight defense, they’re on their way to being a tough postseason matchup.