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Le'Veon Bell just might be the best running back in the NFL and one of the league's most dangerous offensive weapons. And suddenly he might even be available in a trade.
That sounds like it would be an ideal move for the Jets -- a team flush with salary cap space and building towards a better future. CEO Christopher Johnson vowed his team would be aggressive, and this would certainly be an aggressive move.
It just wouldn't make a lot of sense -- at least not yet.
The 26-year-old Bell might be a good fit in the Jets' backfield down the road, but for the moment all he can be is a one-year rental -- and that doesn't really work for a team like the Jets that is more than one season or one player away. The reality is they're not a contender -- not with a rookie quarterback and a young roster still being rebuilt. It would be foolish to try and convince themselves of anything else.
So unless Bell can simultaneously play offensive line, be a No. 1 receiver, rush the passer and get Sam Darnold past any first-year struggles he's likely to have, he can't instantly transform the Jets into a Super Bowl-ready team. And it would have to be instantly because NFL rules say Bell, as the Steelers' "franchise player" can't sign a long-term contract until after the season.
That means the Jets -- or any team that trades for him -- would be giving up a draft pick (at least) to get Bell for 13 games (or less) before they may have to just watch as he walks away.
That doesn't seem worth it. A deeper look at his situation makes that clear:
Is Bell really available?
That's not completely clear, actually. A report over the weekend said the Steelers are willing to listen to offers. That doesn't mean they're willing to accept one. Bell still hasn't signed his "franchise tag" of about $14.5 million. The Steelers gambled that he would sign it before the season and they lost. If they want to deal him, they have about five weeks -- until Oct. 30 -- to do it. Some around the league are skeptical that they will because he has to show up by Nov. 13 or he loses a year of credit towards free agency (meaning he might have to repeat this mess again next year). The Steelers may simply prefer to have a fresh Bell available for their own playoff run.
Are the Jets really interested?
That "depends," according to an NFL source -- presumably on the price. They did call the Steelers, the source said and as the Daily News first reported, and are "monitoring" the situation. But so far there have been no offers, no serious talks, just a "very, very preliminary" conversation, the source said. It sounds like the Jets just wanted to see if the Steelers were really thinking of dealing with him and to make sure their hat was in the ring if it happens.
If he is available, what's the cost?
The team that gets him picks up the remainder of his franchise tag (now about $11.8 million).
What would they have to send the Steelers?
That's unclear. Two NFL sources guessed the Steelers wouldn't trade him for less than a second-round pick -- but that's only a guess. It's worth noting, the Jets don't have a second-round pick in 2019 because of the Sam Darnold trade, but they did get an extra third for Teddy Bridgewater. Franchise players have been traded before for much more (quarterback Matt Cassel in 2009, defensive end Jared Allen in 2008, for example). But the teams that acquired previous franchise players still had the option to sign them to long-term deals. Bell's future team does not -- at least not necessarily -- and that lowers his value in a trade.
Why can't his new team sign him?
Players who were franchise-tagged had until mid-July to sign a long-term deal. When that deadline passed, Bell's only option was to sign his franchise tag or not play in 2018 -- whether he's traded now or not. The next time he can sign a long-term deal is right after the season, just weeks before he's scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent.
So that means a team that trades for him gets an exclusive negotiating window after the season, right?
Yes. Whatever team has Bell's rights can sign him to a long-term deal after their final regular season game and until free agency begins on March 13 -- basically a 10-week window. But at that point, after the season is over and the injury risk has passed, it's a good bet Bell will want to test his market value where he'll likely find multiple teams interested in giving him more than the four-year, $60 million deal (with $45 million guaranteed) that Todd Gurley got from the Rams.
Isn't he worth it anyway?
Look, Bell is an incredible talent. He had 1,291 rushing yards and 655 receiving yards (on 85 catches) in 15 games last season, and could transform the Jets' offense. He would take a ton of pressure off Darnold and give him the kind of weapon he doesn't currently have. But it's hard for him to put them over the top this year when they have needs on the line, in their receiving corps, and at pass-rusher -- needs they can't immediately fill. Is he worth it to give them the negotiating window? Maybe, but it's not worth a high price.
If the Jets wanted to do it anyway, could they?
Sure. But one wild card in this is Bell, and whether he'd want to join the Jets for the rest of the season. He has some control over his situation because he can't be dealt until he signs his franchise tag. Would he do it to join the rebuilding Jets mid-year? If he's only going to spend three months with a team, wouldn't he rather do it with a Super Bowl contender? You know, like the Patriots, Eagles or Packers?
Do the Steelers have any control?
Not really. They can decide not to trade him by the deadline (Oct. 30) which would force Bell to either report by Nov. 13 or lose an accrued season towards free agency -- which basically means the Steelers could franchise him again at a similar amount next year, reigniting this whole mess.
If the Jets wait, can they get him in March?
Absolutely. The Jets figure to have more than $100 million in cap space. Bilal Powell is in the last year of his contract and Isaiah Crowell is easily cuttable. So they have the cap room and roster room. All the pieces are there. Bell once said he was a Jets fan, too. And if he thinks the Jets are on the rise, that and the New York spotlight could be a big draw.
So what's the bottom line?
Bell, right now, has much higher value for a true contender. If the Jets pursue him, they'd really be getting him for that 10-week exclusive window to sign him in the offseason. That has value, but for a second-round pick? If the Steelers' price drops to something much lower, then maybe, but teams don't give up picks in the first two days for nothing -- and that's what the Jets would be getting without some guarantee Bell would stick around for 2019 and beyond.
But if they say they're going to be aggressive, they have to call, right?
No doubt. Because if it turns out the Patriots get him for a fifth-round pick, the Jets will look foolish. They'll call. But they shouldn't do anything more than that right now. They should wait until March to pounce.